Inevitably when you play poker for any length of time the ups and downs will come and go like the cycles of the moon. If only poker cycles were as predictable as that! Only one thing is certain; that as a poker player you will experience as many rushes as lean runs. I have witnessed many poker players convince themselves and anyone else who would listen that they were born unlucky, but when I watch them play for a period of time I rarely see anything resembling bad luck, just a distinct lack of skill.
Take the following hand history as an example:
30/60 - No Limit Hold’em
Player 2 calls 60
Player 1 calls 60
*** FLOP *** [Kh Qd Ac]
Player 2 bets 180
Player 1 calls 180
*** TURN *** [Kh Qd Ac] [9d]
Player 1 bets 405
Player 2 raises to 1,900, and is all in
Player 1 has 15 seconds left to act
Player 1 calls 1,495
Player 2 shows [Jd Tc]
Player 1 shows [9h As]
*** RIVER *** [Kh Qd Ac 9d] [Ah]
Player 2 shows a straight, Ace high
Player 1 shows a full house, Aces full of Nines
Player 1 wins the pot (4,610) with a full house, Aces full of Nines
Player 2 stands up
Check out the after chat:
Player 4: wow n catch
Player 1: thanks
Player 1: got lucky
Player 3: full tilt is rigged
So what do you think? Was this hand rigged? I mean apart from the fact that Player 3 wasn’t in the hand, what would lead him to conclude that the site or this hand was rigged? Looking at this hand, I don’t realistically think there was much wrong with the play here. I loved the check raise all in by Player 2. This was a quality move and definitely a way to maximise profits. The fact that it turned bad is something that will happen to us all. Recognise also that Player 1 acknowledged the luck she got and moved on: bad call, good result. The “rigged” call came from the peanut gallery. Ironically, if the “rigged” comment came from Player 2 himself then I guarantee he would conveniently forget this beat the next time he did it to someone else. To his credit he just left without so much as a whimper. The clue is in the mindset of the player. Anyone who thinks “rigged” is predisposed to notice as many examples to confirm their flawed opinion as possible. In reality, the odds of this occurring were 4 in 44, or 10 to 1 expressed as odds. If you back a horse at 10 to 1 in a race and it wins you don’t scream “RIIIIIGGED!” at the top of your voice from the stands, do you?
Seriously folks. We need to collectively get over the idea that sites are rigged against us and that we will continually get shafted by the “not quite random” random number generator. Even if this is true, it just doesn’t serve us to think this way. This will lead to playing scared, and that is far more damaging to your chances of making profit than any possible site rigging. I personally know many players that make regular monthly profits from poker, your’s truly being one of them. I hate bad beats as much as the next guy but my dealing with them involves walking away until I stop steaming rather than continuing to play in a bad frame of mind. Chasing losses will only exacerbate the problem and a player serious about long term profits simply won’t do it.
Now I know you are probably not reading this willing to be diligent or self examining enough to conduct a true test, but just in case you are there is some merit in being willing to keep hand histories and take stock of your bad beats versus those you inflict upon others. There is little chance anyone would be so caught up in analysis paralysis to actually do this so at least let’s agree on a way forward. Ask yourself only one question when playing. “What am I mostly paying attention to?” I am willing to bet those among you that are looking for bad beats and playing cautiously are looking for ways to lose. By double guessing yourself you are possibly going to make calls you simply should not make and this will tend to lead to even more fear and trepidation going forward. The other possibility is that you will be overly aggressive trying to prevent bad beats and this is counter-productive to your cause. The more you try to prevent suck-outs by over playing hands the more often a bad beat is going to occur with all your chips in the pot.
Getting beaten by a runner/runner straight is not nearly as bad a beat against top pair as it is against two pair or a set. Consider carefully the odds you have to win and lose and remember that 80/20 is still only odds of 4/1 against the underdog. If you really think you have caught a particularly bad beat then try to examine it in terms of how you could have played it better rather than how they should not have called you with their lousy draw. If you would have lost the hand by any means you played it and you had good cause to press on then be satisfied in the knowledge that things will even out so long as you are looking for the upside.The smarter and more sneaky you are, the worse and more frequent your beats will become. Take a bad beat as a sign you are improving (as long as you are being honest with yourself) and seek to get your money into a pot at the right odds. I guarantee you if you do that you will find you win plenty enough to make sure the bad beats will only rob you of profit, rather than take you into loss. Try to remember that a roller coaster ride has many ups and downs but it almost always ends where it started.
May luck not be the reason you win or lose. Let it only be a companion along for the ride.
Crazy Snake is a professional sports handicapper and amateur poker player. He has made a profit year after year through his knowledge of Aussie Rules Football, NFL, tennis, and golf. He is a senior writer for PokerPlasm.com.
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