Semi-Bluffs
published on 01/15/08 at 6:56 am
Semi-bluffs are the weapons in a poker player’s arsenal that can dramatically increase his/her win rate. Semi-bluffs are not bluffs in the true sense of the word, they more like wild moves made in the hope that the hand the player is chasing will eventually come together, yet in the same time, by semi-bluffing a player increases his-her chances of taking down the pot. With a correctly placed semi-bluff the chances of winning the pot increase because the player basically opens up another possibility besides the original one (the right cards hitting) for success: a fold on the part of the opponent.
People-even rookies-instinctively know they have to semi-bluff in certain-obvious-situations. Take the 4-card flush on the flop, for instance. It’s a 9-outer situation with 2 cards to come, which people instinctively recognize and take their chances on it. They realize there’s a pretty good chance the card will come, but they are aware there’s also a pretty good chance it won’t. In that situation it makes sense to everyone that semi-bluffing is the right choice because it gives them two chances instead of just one for the win.
Another situation that begs for a semi-bluff is when a player has an open ended straight. There are still enough outs to justify a semi-bluff, yet there are also enough reasons for the person attempting the play to root for a fold.
A gutshot straight simply doesn’t have the outs needed to justify the move. The bad thing about the above presented two situations is that they’re extremely easy to read, and most reasonably good poker players will read such semi-bluffs. Under these circumstances the board texture becomes a telltale clue. That means these semi-bluffs will probably fail because they won’t generate enough value when the cards hit and because opponents will simply not play along and fold most of the time.
Much like a real bluff, a semi-bluff needs the circumstances to work for it to be successful. Being in or out of position is again an essential detail here.
If you’re in position (everyone else acts before you) you have a number of factors working for you. First the obvious one: you’ll have a pretty good idea about what everyone has as you’ll watch all of them act in front of you. That’ll clue you in to whether or not going for a semi-bluff is a good idea. On the other hand, even if you get called, people are likely to just check on the next street and that’ll give you a free card which might just complete the hand you’ve been chasing.
When out of position though, not only will you have to bet into someone blindly, and then pray that the other players get intimidated, you also wouldn’t get the benefit of the potential free card. You’ll be the first to act on the next street and that’ll have you faced with the dilemma of whether or not it is worth continuing with the bluff.
In order to achieve maximum efficiency on your semi-bluff, you need to be on something your opponents will find difficult to put you on. A gutshot straight draw might be an example, but a small pair in the pocket is also a good choice provided the table is short-handed.
As a general rule: the more of your hand you’re hiding in the pocket (using both pocket cards) the more difficult it will be for your opponent to make an accurate guess.
Semi-bluffing on the small pair in a short handed situation is profitable because of the fact that you usually win more money on it when trips do come than you lose when they don’t, if you play them carefully. By semi-bluffing them successfully, you’ll make your win-ratio even higher and thus make the play even more profitable.
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